Southampton are win-less and point-less so far this season, and will look to get to winning ways. Their next opponent, however, may prove to be a strong test, despite having lost their first game of the season last weekend.
Team News
Ralph Hasenhuttl reports the only absentee injury-wise (ankle) is Nathan Redmond. The rest of the squad are in training as normal.
Head-to-Head
An unfavorable head-to-head record against in recent times, with 2 draws and 2 losses in the last four. Ralph had a few words to describe them:
They are good, organised with a clear philosophy. I really like how they play and their manager has done a fantastic job there.
Ralph Hasenhuttl when asked on his thoughts on Burnley, and why we struggle there.
We will look to improve this record on Saturday.
Predicted Lineup
Starting up top should be Danny Ings and Che Adams. Both were on the end of some good chances against Spurs on the weekend, and Adams in particular was very unlucky not to score. He will look to get his account up and running. Ings, on the other hand, has already put 2 goals to his name, and will look to reach the heights of his exploits last campaign.
In midfielder there will be Moussa Djenepo and Stuart Armstrong in the attacking midfield roles. Djenepo looked impressive in his performance against Spurs, and will look for a similar performance this weekend.
The double pivot will consist of the ever-present captain James Ward-Prowse and Oriol Romeu, who has just celebrated his 29th birthday 2 days prior.
The backline will be flanked as usual by veteran Ryan Bertrand and new signing Kyle Walker-Peters, accompanied in the central areas by Jan Bednarek and Jannik Vestergaard. I picked Vestergaard over Stephens because I was not convinced Stephens was completely fit these last two games, and we need Vestergaard to win the aeriel duels that Burnley will create in our box. Alex McCarthy starts in goal, as usual.
Preview
Southampton and Burnley will look to get points on the board this weekend, as they strive to alleviate what has been a tough start to the 2020/2021 campaign.
3 straight losses with only 2 goals scored is hardly the return the club had been expecting in preseason, especially after the strong form the club earned post-lockdown last season.
In order to get all three points, what are some things Southampton have to keep in mind?
Let Armstrong let rip from outside the box
Burnley’s tactics have been well-documented for a while now. Off possession, they stick to a compact low block designed to either drive opposition to the wings, or force opposition to take speculative long shots from outside the box, where the shots will be maneuvered to the center of the goal where Nick Pope will be waiting. If only Saints had a belter specialist, who may or may not have a song dedicated to his exceptional ability in this regard.
Oh, we do? Fantastic. Yes Stuart Armstrong and the quality he possesses when he shoots just outside the box. He attempted 32 shots last seasons from outside the box, the 12th highest in the league. Last season Burnley had the highest attempts against their goal among the teams in the Premier League, with 41% of the shots they faced coming from this area of the pitch.
If Burnley insist in forcing Armstrong to shoot outside the box, then so be it. It’s their funeral.
Attacking the flanks
The low block also means that the flanks will be open for our wide players to overload, in particular our full-backs, who provide the width in our system.
Kyle Walker-Peters has already had an assist to his name this season, and will look to provide more quality chances to the strikers. Ryan Bertrand, on the other hand, tends to provide dummy runs to drag defenders away from the center, which allows players like Djenepo and Ings space to shoot. Either way, both full-backs will be key in our attack.
Higher volume of high quality chances for the strikers.
In Ings and Adams we have two natural strikers who have the instinct to know where the goal is without looking up, and are able adjust their body quickly to line up for an attempt at goal.
However, they really can’t do anything when they aren’t given enough chances to finish.
Against Crystal Palace the team had an average xG of 0.14 per shot, while against Spurs we had an average xG of 0.16. That is simply unacceptable if we are to make full use of the firepower we have up top. The reintroduction of Djenepo and Armstrong into the XI will hopefully give the team a lift in terms of creativity and chance creation.
Beware of Chris Wood
While oft underestimated by many fans, Chris Wood has nonetheless registered double digit goal tallies in his last two seasons, and has become more of a talisman to the Burnley attack. He averaged 2 shots per game last seasons, netting 14 goals and 1 assist.
Of those 14 goals, 5 of those was by use of his head. He also registered the 7th highest total headed attempts among forwards in the league last season, and 8th highest headed attempts per game among forwards in the league last seasons (for those who played 20 games or more).
Clearly an aerial menace, it is imperative that our center-backs, whoever it may be on Saturday, keep a close eye on Wood, and make sure those long balls don’t reach him.
Prediction
Despite the negativity the last three games bring, Im rooting for Saints to bring to our points tally the three points, with a narrow 1-2 victory. Expect Che Adams to be among the goals.
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